全球各国的国际旅游业务已停歇多时，中国的入出境旅游业务已经为零。

2020年年初开始的新冠病毒疫情，对中国来说，有着自1840年以来非同一般的意义。

依照新冠病毒COVID-19凶残而狡诈的特性来看，人类在短时间内根本不可能将其彻底消灭，可以预料，未来几年甚至十几年，整个地球都会在COVID-19及其各级变异后代的轮番攻击中不得消停。

前几日，我看了美籍华裔医学工作者的一篇文章，感想颇多。这几日又看了国内几位旅游业专家和UNWTO及WTTC的有关文章，内心感触良多。

几个月来，我本人也写了几篇小文章（有的是用笔名发表的），或许在另一个角度给了行业一些启示。

到目前为止，全世界有一亿多人感染了新冠病毒（未包括无法统计的），因新冠病毒疫情死亡的人数近220万人，关键是，这个数字还在不停地增加。

截至北京时间1月28日17时05分，全球累计新冠肺炎确诊病例超1亿例（央视）

中国在抗击疫情方面是全球最好的模范国家，中国曾经在比较长的时间里将新冠病毒患者数字阻停在8万多。现在这个数字已经突破10万，而且仅仅是不到两个月时间，细思极恐。

去年底，联合国世界旅游组织曾经做过预测，预言2020下半年，全球旅游业收入将下落60%～80%。从目前情况来看，全球旅游业总体收入下落80%～90%是肯定的。从北半球的欧洲、俄罗斯，以及南北美洲的情况来看，2021年新冠病毒疫情是无法得到严格控制的，亚洲的印度，以及非洲等等更是在疫情防控方面一筹莫展。关键是可以广泛应用和有效遏制疫情的疫苗在哪里？在泰国，2020年旅游业收入总数下降超过90%，给泰国国家GDP带来重创。

根据去年UNWTO的预测，国际游客全球旅游消费的损失为 8.5亿～11亿美元，并造成1～1.2亿旅游业工作岗位的流失。这个数字是非常保守的，应该有1.5亿～2亿旅游业工作者基本失业或完全失去岗位工作。

众所周知，国际旅游业日益成为全球经济的主要引擎之一，带来的经济效益约占全球经济总额的8%左右。旅游业直接和间接创造的就业机会，占全球所有就业机会的十分之一。旅游业在包括美国、法国、英国、中国、意大利、巴西、澳大利亚、日本、印度、南非、泰国在内的许多国家经济的发展中占有重要地位。

中国旅游经济怎么办？中国旅游业发展将走向何方？

2019年，中国旅游人数总计60亿人次，同比增长8.4%；入出境游3亿人次，增长3.1%。总收入6.63万亿元人民币，增长11%；国际旅游收入1313亿美元，增长3.3%；旅游业对国民经济的综合贡献为10.94万亿元人民币，占GDP的11.05%（综合贡献率）。旅游业促成直接就业2825万人，直接和间接就业7987万人，占全国的10.31%。2019年中国旅游业经济综合贡献还是很不错的。

2017-2019年旅游市场基本情况

最近看了些文章，既有世界旅游组织、法国欧洲经济研究院、世界旅游联盟、中国文旅部宏观方面的，也有香港浩华公司和魏小安司长、赵焕炎先生的微观方面的。

总之，2020年中国旅游业是断崖式下落，旅游业总体损失为4.5万亿元人民币（2020年中国GDP超过100万亿元人民币）。按世界旅游组织的运算表述，中国的国际旅游大体倒退了30年，全球旅游业负增长幅度大概率超过2003年水平。

我在去年11月份举办的“文旅国际峰会暨第十三世界酒店论坛”大会开幕式上发表了对2021全球旅游业发展和看法，我现在的观点依然没有改变，那就是：任何国家如果没有入境的“国际旅游业收入”，那么该国的旅游业经济是“非常苍白的”。

左图：吴军林主席在国际会议开幕式上致辞

如今，全球几乎所有国家都已关闭了边境口岸，中国也不例外。以中国的“北上广深杭”及其他大城市来看，都是国际旅游者去得最多的地方和留下“银子”最多的地方。

从赵焕炎先生最近的文章中可以得知：上海星级酒店2020年平均出租率为36.8%，五星级酒店平均出租率为37.8%……。上海这个中国酒店业最发达城市都如此，北京广州深圳等大城市酒店入住率又如何呢？是不是在30%左右或者以下呢？这些个大城市2020年国际入境的国外游客几乎为零！

本人长时间在中国旅游业的市场一线忙碌，2020年依然飞了10万公里（高铁和自驾车不计），我是比较清楚中国旅游景区、酒店、旅行社、游艇码头、购物店、娱乐场所这些硬性投资比较多的企业“在疫情之下”的日子是非常不好过的，许多都已经倒闭关门了。

香港浩华公司最近做了个访问调查报告，主要是针对2021年第一季度中国酒店业市场的。总体情况表述来看，2021年第一季度酒店市场“不好于去年同期”的受访者表达率达67%，“与2020年第一季度市场情况持平”的表达率占20%，市场情况“好于去年同期”的表达率占13%，这足以说明2021年中国全国酒店业经营收入将面临更深层面的滑落。

2021年第一季度市场景气预期

旅游者集聚的大投入的大景区和旅游综合体就更别提了，即使不关门歇业，因各地贯彻落实“非必要不出门”这一政策精神，旅游业工作现状非常纠结和矛盾。春节前，唯有海南及少数几个南方地区景区经营的情况会好一些，虽然南方的许多寺庙都已闭门不接受香客进入。

新冠病毒疫情之下，中国旅游业发展将走向何方？

关于政治和宏观层面，联合国秘书长古特雷斯、世界卫生组织总干事谭徳塞和中国国家元首都有过很好的纲领性讲话及系列经典语录，他们对世界未来发展既表现极其忧虑，又都充满信心。

然而，最关键的是：一、全球疫情何时能得到全面控制？二、疫苗何时能在全球快速保障供应使用？三、南北半球或东西方国家和地区旅游出入境口岸何时重开？

前不久，世界旅游联盟在有关报告中谈到：中国的旅游业从一开始就处于抗疫的第一线。防控抗疫在有效阻断疫情经由旅游活动而传播和扩散的同时，也让旅行社、OTA、住宿、景区、购物等旅游企业承受了巨大的损失，承担了前所未有的财务和就业压力。中国旅游集团、凯撒、华程、众信、广之旅、春秋等传统旅行社，及以携程、美团、飞猪、同程、途牛为代表的在线旅行运营商，在自身业务停摆且损失巨大的情况下，第—时间就响应了国家有关号召。

从其他有关文章可以得知，2020年，中国旅游业已有四万家大小酒店倒闭，十几万家企业“关停并转”，几千个品牌经营不下去等等，这在今天看来，依然不是危言耸听。

根据2021年1月19日在海口市召开的“海南省旅游和文化广电体育工作会议”的数据，2020年，海南省共接待国内外游客6455.09万人次，实现旅游总收入872.86亿元人民币，虽然总体收入比较2019年下滑了10%以上，但还是成为全国旅游恢复情况最好地区之一。那么，2021年，海南旅游业的情况呢？我看未必会比2020年强多少（建议不要把所谓的“一日游”数字统计在内）。

针对全球新冠疫情不停蔓延和中国疫情现状的不可控性，2021年和未来几年中国旅游业不仅仅是“遭受重创”这一简单说辞。“新冠病毒疫情”将对中国旅游业发展带来多方面深层次影响和更多毁灭性打击。

上海市新冠肺炎治疗专家组组长张文宏最近谈到，从世界疫情来看，新冠病毒已经稳稳地占领了地球，成为地球上的常驻病毒。通过一年的传播，病毒在不断变异，我们看到病毒传播得更快了，但是没有看到病毒的毒力出现大幅度的降低。这表明我们不得不做好做持久战的准备。

前几日，原国家旅游局司长魏小安写的一篇文章表明的观点力度比较大，给行业人士许多启示。我本人还是坚持去年的一些观点，中国旅游业发展要更多地面对现实问题，最起码在如下方面值得警醒和重视：

一、既要重视国家的高层精神和宏观调控，更要重视新冠病毒疫情残酷现实和市场需求的不确定因素，以变求变。中央和国务院有关指导性文件和对旅游业发展的有关建议要及时修订调整。

二、不能被以往“局部”和阶段性理想化数据分析所迷惑（很多的数字都是抄来抄去的，很多数字是重复统计的，没有得到市场切实验证），现实就是全球旅游业基本停摆和死掉了，我们在“天灾”面前不能硬撑，更不能硬来。

三、建议从中央到地方停止一切没有必要的“旅游政绩工程”和所谓的“全域旅游示范区”、“旅游小镇”综合体投资建设，避免大量的资金做了无效投入，给未来旅游业发展带来沉重的包袱。据原国家旅游局统计，2017年全国计划投资1.6万亿元人民币，达到年增20%；2019年的前几年旅游投资增速一直为旅游人数增速的2～3倍。这个现象很可疑，或者投资数字是假的，属于统计泡沫。如果投资数字是真的，那就是供大于求的过热投资，也是一种“泡沫”，必将导致全国诸多地方旅游项目投资供给的过剩。

四、从政府层面，要从行业几级管理上极大程度地消减没有必要的管理机构和管理人员，甚至裁撤一些多余的机构和部门（当前和未来不少公务员人浮于事之“腐败”怎么办？）。

五、资本热钱投资和所谓行业并购投资需要非常谨慎。所有资本家的“资本”都是要取得高利润高回报的，而且还要有完善的退出机制。中国文旅部对旅游业发展政策已经转向了，中国旅游市场萎缩了，旅游消费者锐减了，大量投资及并购是有诸多风险的。中国政府现在也不允许大的资本投机商和投机家过度地抄底中国旅游行业优质资源和优质资产。

六、无论是国企或者民企，该倒闭的倒闭，该转行的转行，“天灾”是残酷的，市场也是残酷的，当下只有及时有效地“关停并转”才是“王道”。

七、“有文化的旅游才是有价值的旅游”。企业投资老板多考虑些文化内涵丰富的“文旅融合”项目投资，多做些“轻巧”投资项目，不做过多的大量投资和并购，现在通过“大项目洗钱”构建利益链条是非常危险的。

八、与时俱进，必须重视新兴科技投入、数字化应用和云服务等新的跨界产业链融合工作，给企业带来无限发展的潜能和生命力。

九、旅游业是一个与其他行业关联度很高的行业（文化的、教育的、体育的、工业的、外贸的、交通的等等），也是经济发展到一定程度后迅猛发展的“阳光行业”。旅游业发展一定要重视“品牌打造”和“品牌提升”工作，品牌打造是一个漫长的过程，是急不来的。欧美国家一个著名品牌基本都有几十年，上百年的历史，而我们呢？

十、要考虑如何将企业“做小做强”。我们总是在投资和做企业时“贪大求宏”，这似乎不是原则性错误，但并非是十分必要的。我们在欧洲考察时看到的一些著名产品和非常好的酒店，他们的“门脸”和“门店”都不大，但是它们有一个共同的特点，特色服务和企业文化做得非常不错。

总之，我们迎来的和面对的2021年变数比较大，因为受到2020年新冠病毒疫情的衍生性灾害诸多影响，2021年或许比2020年更加难熬。当然，我们也非常希望看到2021年春暖花开之后满满的“大地飞歌”和“畅享畅游”，然而，在百年未有之灾难面前我们不能靠感慨和写诗解决问题。认真想一想，2020年中国GDP100多万亿中有多少是旅游业直接贡献的？今天，我们并非绝望，我们一定要非常理性和科学地发展第三产业中的旅游业，因为不理性和超度冒进，并追求没有必要的“全国开花的”1000个旅游小镇投资建设和全国几万亿的旅游项目投资等等，所以，新组建的文旅部主管旅游业的李金早副部长几个月前黯然落马了。

吴军林2021.1.29于海口

吴军林：文旅行业资深专家、客座教授，世界酒店联盟主席、联合国经社部国际旅游与酒店联合总会执行主席、文旅杂志社社长兼总编、《世界酒店》杂志出品人、文旅国际研究院院长、文旅国际峰会&世界酒店论坛组委会主席、中爱国际文旅集团董事会主席、泛旅文化集团董事长。

The international tourism business of all over the world has stopped for a long time, and China's inbound and outbound tourism business has been zero.

The outbreak of the COVID-19, which began in early 2020, is of extraordinary significance to China since 1840.

COVID-19 the beginning of 2021, according to the ferocious and cunning nature of the COVID-19, it is impossible for mankind to completely eliminate it in a short period of time. It can be expected that in the next few years or even more years, The whole earth will not stop in the rotation attacks of COVID-19 and its mutated offspring at all levels.

A few days ago, I read an article by Chinese-American medical workers. These days read several domestic tourism experts and UNWTO and WTTC related articles very touched.

In the past few months, I have also written a few small articles (some written in pseudonyms), perhaps in another perspective to give the industry some inspiration.

So far, more than 100 million people around the world have been infected with the COVID-19 (not including those that can not be counted), and nearly 2.2 million people have died from the COVID-19 epidemic. Crucially, this number is still increasing.

China is the best model country in the world to fight the epidemic. It has been a long time to stop the number of COVID-19 patients at more than 80,000. Now the number has exceeded 100000, and it is only less than two months. Consider very fear.

At the end of last year, the United Nations World Tourism Organization predicted that global tourism revenue would fall 60~80% in the second half of 2020. From the current situation, it is inevitable that global tourism revenue will fall 80~90%. In Europe, Russia, and North and South America in the northern hemisphere, the 2021 outbreak of the COVID-19 can not be strictly controlled, India in Asia and so on, as well as Africa in the prevention and control of the epidemic. The key is where the vaccine can be widely used and effectively contained? All in all, in Thailand, total tourism revenue will fall by more than 90% in 2020, which will hit the overall GDP of Thailand.

Last year, UNWTO forecast global tourism losses of $850 million ~1.1 billion in global tourism consumption for international tourists, and permanent loss of million tourism jobs. This number is very conservative. There should be 150 million people working in the tourism industry who are basically unemployed or completely out of work.

As is well known, international tourism is increasingly becoming one of the main engines of the global economy, accounting for about 8% of the global economy, and it also creates direct and indirect jobs, accounting for one tenth of all global jobs. Tourism plays an important role in the economic development of many countries, including the United States, France, the United Kingdom, China, Italy, Brazil, Australia, Japan, India, South Africa and Thailand.

What about China tourism economics? Where is the development of China's tourism industry?

2019, A total number of 6 billion Chinese tourists, year-on-year growth of 8.4%; 300 million inbound and outbound tours of person-time, The increase rate was 3.1%. Total revenue 6.63 trillion Yuan, An increase of 11 per cent. International tourism revenues of $131.3 billion Yuan, The increase was 3.3%. The comprehensive contribution of tourism to the national economy is 10.94 trillion Yuan, accounting for 11.05% of the GDP(Comprehensive contribution rate). Direct employment of 28.25 million people, 79.87 million direct and indirect workers, 10.31% of the country, China's tourism economic comprehensive contribution is still very good in 2019.

Recently, I read some articles, including the macro aspects of the World Tourism Organization, the French European Economic Research Institute, the World Tourism Union and the Director of Xiao'an, as well as the micro aspects of Horwath HTL and Mr. Zhao Huanyan.

In short, tourism in 2020 is a cliff-like down, the overall loss of tourism is 4.5 trillion Yuan. (China's GDP has exceed 100 trillion Yuan in 2020). According to the operation of the World Tourism Organization, China's international tourism has generally retreated by 30 years, and the negative growth rate of global tourism has exceeded the level of 2003 Year.

At the opening ceremony of the "International Summit and the Thirteenth World Hotel Forum" held in November last year, I expressed my view on the development and view of the global tourism industry in 2021, now my view remains the same, that is if no country has entry "international tourism income ", then the country's tourism economy is "weak".

Today, almost all countries around the world have closed border crossings, and China is no exception. In view of China's "Beijing、Shanghai、Guangzhou, Shenzhen and Hangzhou" and other mega-cities, it is the place where international tourists go most and leave the most "Silver Money" place!

According to Mr. Zhao's recent article, the average rental rate of Shanghai star hotels in 2020 is 36.8%…… and the five-star hotel is 37.8% Etc., and Shanghai is the most developed city in China, so how about the hotel occupancy rate in Beijing, Guangzhou, Shenzhen and other big cities? Is it about 30% or less? These big cities have almost zero international visitors!

I've been on the front line of China's tourism market for a long time still flying 100000 kilometers in 2020 (high-speed rail and self-driving is not be counted), I am more aware of China's tourist attractions, hotels, travel agencies, marinas, shopping mall and entertainment venues, these hard investment enterprises "under the epidemic" life is very difficult, Many have gone out of business.

Horwath HTL recently made a survey report, mainly aimed at the first quarter 2021 China hotel market forecast. Overall, 67% of respondents said that the hotel market in the first quarter of 2021 was worse than the same period last year, 20% said that the market was flat compared to the same period in the first quarter of 2020, and 13% said that the market was better than 2020. This is enough to show that China's national hotel industry operating income will face decline in 2021 with deep level.

Not to mention the large scenic spots and tourist complexes where tourists gather, even if they do not close their business, it is a very contradictory fact that tourists "do not need to go out" without going out. Only Hainan and a few southern scenic spots will be better, many southern temples have closed doors to pilgrims.

Under the COVID-19 epidemic, where will China's tourism development go?

At the political and macro level, the UN Secretary General Guterres, the World Health Organization Secretary General Medes and the Chinese head of state all have good programmatic speeches and a series of quotations. They are both extremely worried about the future development of the world and full of confidence.

However, the key is: first, when can the epidemic be controlled totally? II. When can vaccines be globally guaranteed for supply? III. When will the reopening of entry and exit ports in the North and South hemispheres or the East and West countries?

Not long ago, the World Tourism Federation talked about in the relevant report: China's tourism industry has been on the front line of anti-epidemic the beginning. At the same time, it also makes travel agencies, OTA、accommodation, scenic spots, shopping and other tourism enterprises bear huge losses, and bear unprecedented financial and employment pressure. China Travel Group, Caesar, HCG, U-tour, COZL, Spring Travel and other traditional travel agencies, with Ctrip, Meituan, Fliggy, Tongcheng Tourism Group, Tuniu as the representative of online travel operators, in their own business shutdown and huge losses, the first time in response to the call of the state.

By the end of 2020, it can be seen from the other relevant articles that China's tourism industry has more than 100,000 enterprises "shut down and turn", thousands and brands can not continue to operate, In today's view, this is still not alarmist.

The Hainan Provincial Conference on “Tourism, Culture, Radio, Television and Sports” held in Haikou on January 19,2021, revealed, in 2020, Hainan Province received 64.5509 million domestic and foreign tourists, Total tourism revenue of 87.286 billion Yuan, To be one of the best tourist destinations in the country, Overall income fell by more than 10% compared with 2019. So, 2021, What about Hainan tourism? I don't think it will be much better than 2020. (It is advisable not to count so-called " one day trips".)

In view of the spread of the global COVID-19 epidemic and the uncontrollable nature of the current situation in China, China's tourism industry in 2021 and the next few years is not just simple.The epidemic of novel coronavirus will bring profound influence and more devastating blow to the development of China's tourism industry.

Zhang Hongwen, head of the Shanghai COVID-19 Pneumonia treatment expert Group, recently said: from the world epidemic situation, the COVID-19 has steadily occupied the earth and become a resident virus on the earth. We see the virus spreading faster, but we do not see a significant reduction in its virulence. This shows that we have to prepare for a protracted war.

The other day, the former head of the National Tourism Administration Wei Xiaoan wrote an article to show a relatively strong point of view, to the industry has more inspiration. I myself insist on some of last year's views that China's tourism development should be more realistic problems , at least in the following aspects worthy of warning and .

First, we should not only attach importance to the national high-level spirit and macro-control, but also attach importance to the cruel reality of the COVID-19 virus epidemic situation and the uncertain factors of market demand in order to change.Relevant guiding documents and proposals on the development of tourism issued by the Central Committee and the State Council should be revised and adjusted in a timely manner

Second, can not be confused by Previous partial and local and stage idealized data analysis (a lot of numbers are copied, many of the figures are duplicated, there are no verified practically by real market), the reality is that the global tourism industry has basically stopped and died, we can not support in the face of "natural disasters", but not hard to come.

Third, it is suggested that all unnecessary "tourism achievements project" and the so-called "all-for-one tourism demonstration plot " and "tourist town" complex investment and construction should be stopped from the central to the local level, so as to avoid a large amount of invalid investment and bring a heavy burden to the future tourism development. According to the national tourism administration, the national 2017 plans to invest 1.6 trillion yuan, 20% a year, tourism investment growth in 2019 before a few years have been for 2 ~ 3 times the number of tourist, this phenomenon is very suspicious Number is false, or investment bubble belong to statistics If the investment is really, that is, supply of overheating investment, is also a kind of bubble, will lead to the excess supply of many local tourism project investment

Fourth, from the government level, from several levels of industry management to greatly reduce unnecessary management agencies and managers, and even abolish some redundant institutions and departments. (What about the current and future overstaffed and corruption among civil servants?)

Fifth, capital investment and so-called industry M & A investment needs to be very cautious. The "capital" of all capitalists is to achieve high profits and high returns, and there is a perfect exit mechanism. The Ministry of Culture and Tourism of China has shifted its policy towards tourism development,The China Tourism market has shrunk, consumers have plummeted, and there are many risks to large investments and mergers and acquisitions. The Chinese government now does not allow large capital speculators to tap the quality resources and good assets of the tourism industry.

Sixth, Whether it is state-owned enterprises or private enterprises, the closure of the closure, the transformation of the operation ," natural disasters "is cruel, the market is cruel, only timely and effective" closure and transformation "is the" king ".

Seventh ," cultural tourism is valuable tourism ", enterprise investment owners consider more cultural connotations of the "cultural integration" project investment, do more "light" investment, do not do too much investment, now through "big project money laundering" to build a chain of interests is very dangerous.

Eighth, keep pace with the times, we must attach importance to the integration of new cross-border industrial chains, such as new scientific and technological inputs, digital applications and cloud services, so as to bring unlimited potential and explosive power to enterprises.

Ninth, tourism is a highly related industry(Culture education sports industry foreign trade transportation and so on), but also the economic development to a certain extent after the emergence of "sunshine industry ", tourism development must pay attention to" brand building "and" brand promotion "work, brand building is a long process, is not urgent. A famous brand in Europe and the United States has a history of decades and hundreds of years. And us?

Tenth, we should consider how to make enterprises "small and strong ". We are always "greedy" when investing and doing business, which is not a mistake of principle, but not very necessary. Some of the famous products and very good hotels we saw during our European tour, their "door faces" and "stores" are not big, but they have a common feature and the characteristic service and enterprise culture are very good.

In short, the 2021 variables we face are relatively large, because of the many derivative disasters of the 2020 COVID-19 epidemic, 2021 may be more difficult than 2020. Of course, we also hope and optimistic to see the 2021 spring blooming full of "earth flying song" and "enjoy a swim ", however, in the face of a hundred years of disaster, we can not rely on emotion and poetry to solve the problem. Consider carefully, how many of China's more than GDP of 100 trillion Yuan in 2020 is the direct contribution of tourism? Today, we are not despairing, we must be very rational and scientific development of tourism in the tertiary industry, because of the irrational and turn, and pursue it is not necessary to "flower of the nation's" 1000 tourist town construction investment and the trillions of dollars in tourism project investment, and so on, so, a vice minister in charge of tourism in the newly established Ministry of culture and tourism fell down a few months ago.

Written by Wu Junlin, Haikou, 2021.1.29.

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