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【文旅院】颠覆——中国旅游业今明年将全面和彻底地“洗牌”?

时间:2020-07-15来源:世界酒店联盟 作者:采编中心
  
这两天,又有几篇小文章让人读了脑洞大开的(这里不细述)。经过长达半年的“新冠病毒疫情”肆虐,很显然“中国旅游业”的投资与经营局面将会迎来深层次颠覆大家可以非常理性地研究下我们新成立的“文旅部”和新整合组建的“中国旅游集团”,以及北京最大的综合性旅游企业“首旅集团”在半年时间里做了些什?又能做些什么?当然,从政治和人民生命健康安全来看,政府和国有特大型企业做了大量的和非常值得赞誉的现实工作。然而,对于中国旅游业来讲,全国的文旅部门和许多的超大型的综合性旅游集团应该知道“旅游业经济产出”现实情况非常严峻。有关文章报道说,全球有几十万家企业倒闭(包括上百年的著名奢侈品品牌企业),全国有10000多家旅游企业和40000多家酒店实体已经关门倒闭,数字不一定精确,但现实一定比“数字”更加“不忍细看”。建议行业管理部门和全国旅游业同仁重点研究下北京这个具有政治、文化、经济、交通等中心地位和特殊属性的“旅游之都”吧,可以这样预测,北京的旅游业今年十•一之前的八个月将是一个“垮掉的时期”,北京长安街沿线的大酒店、大酒楼、大戏院(包括连锁院线)、大旅游景点、大商业综合体等等都损失惨重(本人长时间在这个地区工作和居住)。可以想象:北京首旅集团在“新冠病毒疫情”这半年期间损失是巨大的(许多员工每月只拿1000元生活费),这个损失国家将如何提供资金支持和政策扶持(国家在2020—2021年又能拿出多少钱进行“摊大饼式”的拯救和帮扶众多国企呢?)?大型国企尚且如此,那么大大小小的民营旅游企业集团日子就更难过了。比如:浙江开元旅业集团、上海春秋航空集团、海航集团、江西三清山旅游集团、海南民间旅行社集团等等它们每家企业的损失都是亿元以上计,尽管如此,它们还是一直苦撑着没有倒下。试问:国家的旅游行业管理部门和研究机构有没有来自实地一线的采集的第一手统计数据?这些千千万万的“大中国”之下的旅游和酒店企业到底死掉了多少?经营亏损了多少?正在和即将倒闭的企业到底有多少?国家将拿出多少钱和什么样的政策帮助和引导企业渡过难关?特别是我们的民营旅游和酒店企业。
2020年是一个人类文明史上最值得关注和重视的一年!因为我们通过现代文明和高科技能看见和感触到这个“庚子年”的极其可怕和无情。中国旅游业在2020年将会发生诸多重大事件和“颠覆性现实”!其实,颠覆已经来了:
我消灭你,与你无关。打败你的往往不是你的竞争对手!是谁在消灭你和打败你呢?人们不会想到,小红书、滴滴、拼多多等这样的公司开始进军旅游业了。“跨界”将是一个永恒的“时髦词语”,2020年开始的跨界让你更加防不胜防。那么,政府之下的超大集团和非常知名的“旅游企业”你们准备好了吗?如果没有政府资金支持(下一阶段可能许多地方公务员发不出工资了)和政策性的帮扶你们怎么办(国家本身也比较困难)?惯性思维的“等靠要”似乎已经行不通了。从事出境游和入境游业务的旅行及商务服务公司几乎全服关停或倒闭了。国内的省、市、自治区之间的组团旅游业务也没有正式开启,怎么办?国内的旅行社企业你们还能干什么?我在寻思:国家为什么不倡导“新冠病毒疫情”相对安全的地区,如海南、湖南、云南、广西、西藏、江苏、江西、四川等率先开禁并有序进行多省区联动“走向健康之旅”呢?如果不能积极做到这一点,那么,国家目前验收那么多的“全域旅游示范区”有何实际意义?那些众多携巨资的旅游投资开发企业到处“信誓旦旦”的要投资几十亿几百亿不是“慷慨赴死”吗?以人与自然融合和人与人“互动欢娱”为要素的“大旅游行动”停滞了(家门口的小旅游不是长久之计),投资商投资大型文旅项目和旅游小镇项目不是“脑残”就一定是有以“破坏生态环境进行洗钱”之嫌的。
2020“新冠病毒疫情”在全球范围内依然没有完全控制住,毫无疑问,美国在八月份将突破500万“新冠病毒”感染人数是无悬念的,那么全球“新冠病毒”感染者人数将会在八月突破2000万。这是令我们这些“当代文明人”非常惧怕的!据权威媒体预测并报道,如果新冠疫情持续12个月,那么全球旅游业经济将会直接损失3.3万亿美元(全球经济GDP将损失4.3%以上)毋容置疑,中国是全球病毒疫情管控和救治的典范,未来中国将会是“全世界的一片净土”!这场突如其来的“新冠病毒疫情”将会深刻地影响人类未来几十年。在这两三年内,全球旅游业经济的繁荣将无法全面恢复和振兴,中国旅游业发展大趋势将会在2020—2021年“自然撕裂”和“人为重构”。据可靠消息透露,国家文旅部在2020—2021年将有三到四位部长副部长级高官到龄退休和调整(包括雒树刚部长),那么,在这个非常关键的一年和一年半时间里,中国旅游业是一个自我生存发展、自我“断臂求生”、自我“无奈改嫁”和在绝望中自我“安乐死去”的“最无语”时期。在这个时期中,强者有了许多“剪羊毛”的理由和机会,也就是说:强者更强,他们会在此时期拥有更多的政治资源、资本渠道、品牌效应、软实力渗透和人力资源储备等优势。特别是具有文化基因、先进科创和观念经济思维的企业和机构,它们将会更多地“赢得未来”,比如:复星旅文集团、宋城演艺股份、云南城投集团、泛旅文化集团等等,未来综合性的“大平台”和“影响力”、“软实力”极其重要,它们都是企业投资和发展的“战略资源”
2020—2021中国旅游业全面和彻底颠覆和洗牌的“大戏”已经拉开了帷幕……

A few days ago, I wrote an article ," Save —— China's tourism will be completely "dead " economy in today and next year ? Industry peers are paying more attention.

These two days, there are a few more small articles let people inspired (not detailed here). After half a year of "coronavirus epidemic" raging, it is clear that "China's tourism" investment and management situation will usher in a deep-level subversion. We can rationally study what our newly established "Ministry of Culture and Tourism" and newly integrated "China Tourism Group ", as well as what Beijing's largest comprehensive tourism enterprise" Beijing Tourism Group ", what has they done in this half a year? What can they do? Of course, in terms of politics and people's lives, health and safety, the government and state-owned mega-enterprises have done a lot of practical work and very commendable. However, for China's tourism industry, the national tourism sector and many super-large comprehensive tourism groups should know that "tourism economic output" reality is very serious. The article reports that hundreds of thousands of businesses around the world have closed down (including hundreds of years of well-known luxury brands), and that more than 10000 tourism businesses and more than 40000 hotel entities across the country have closed down. The number is not necessarily accurate, but the reality must be more "unbearable to look at" than the "number". It is suggested that industry management departments and national tourism colleagues should focus on Beijing as a "tourist capital" with political, cultural, economic and transportation characteristics. It can be predicted that the eight months of Beijing's tourism industry is going to be a "period of collapse" before October 1st., and the big hotel, the big restraunt , the big theater (including the chain line), the big tourist attractions, the big commercial complex and so on along Chang'an Street in Beijing have suffered heavy losses (I have been worked and lived in this area for a long time). we can imagine: Beijing Tourism Group in the "coronavirus epidemic" loss is huge in this half year period (many employees only take 1000 RMB per month for living expenses), How will the state provide financial and policy support to the loss?(how much money can the state spend and help many state-owned enterprises with “pancake style” in 2020-2021? Large state-owned enterprises are so, and the small private tourism enterprise groups even more sad in these days. For example: Zhejiang Kaiyuan Travel Group, Shanghai Spring and Autumn Airlines Group, HNA Group, Jiangxi Sanqingshan Tourism Group, Hainan Folk Travel Group, and so on, each of their enterprises losses are more than 100 million yuan, despite this, they have been struggling not to fall.May we ask: does the national tourism industry management and research institutions have first-hand statistics collected from the field line?How many tourism and hotel enterprises have died under the "Great China"? How much is the operating loss? How many enterprises are going to close down? How much money and what kind of policies will the state provide to help and guide enterprises through difficulties? Especially our private tourism and hotel enterprises.

 2020 is the most worthy of attention in the history of human civilization! Because we can see and feel this "Gengzi Year" extremely terrible and ruthless through modern civilization and high technology. China's tourism industry will have many major events and "subversive reality" in 2020! In fact, subversion has come:

 I destroy you, it is none of your business. It's not your competition to beat you! Who is destroying you and defeating you? People don't think that companies like Little Red Book, Didi, and Pinduoduo are starting to travel business."Cross-border" will be an eternal "buzzword ", starting in 2020 cross-border let you hard to prevent. So, are you ready for the mega-groups under the government and the very well-known "tourism enterprises "?What if you don't have government funding (maybe many local civil servants may have no pay in next stage) and policy support (the country itself is difficult)? The "wait-and-see" of habitual thinking does not seem to work. Travel and business services companies engaged in outbound and inbound travel business almost completely shut down or closed down.Between the domestic provinces, municipalities, autonomous regions group tourism business has not officially opened, how to do? What else can you do with domestic travel agencies? In the search: why does the state not advocate the "coronavirus epidemic" relatively safe areas, such as Hainan, Hunan, Yunnan, Guangxi, Tibet, Jiangsu, Jiangxi, Sichuan and other first banned and orderly multi-provincial linkage "to a healthy journey "?If this can not be done actively, then what is the practical significance of the national acceptance of so many "global tourism demonstration areas ", Those tourism investment and development enterprises that carry huge amounts of money are willing to invest tens of billions of dollars everywhere. Isn't it "generous to die"? With the integration of man and nature and human "interaction and entertainment" as the elements of the "big tourism action" stagnated (small tourism at home is not a long-term solution), investors to invest in large cultural tourism projects and tourism town projects is either "brain disability" or "damage to the ecological environment for money laundering suspicion" .
There is no doubt that there will be more than 5 million Coronavirus infections in the U.S. in August, and the number of Coronavirus infections will exceed 20 million in August. This is what makes us modern civilized people very afraid! According to authoritative media forecasts and reports, if the Coronavirus epidemic lasts 12 months, the global tourism economy will lose $3.3 trillion directly (the global economic GDP will lose more than 4.3%).There is no doubt that China is a model for the control and treatment of the global virus epidemic, and that China will be "a pure land in the world" in the future! This sudden " Coronavirus epidemic" will have a profound impact on human future decades. what In these two or three years, the prosperity of the global tourism economy will not be fully restored and revitalized, and the general trend of China's tourism development will be "natural tear" and "artificial reconstruction" in 2020-2021. According to reliable sources, between 2020 and 2021, the Ministry of Culture and Tourism will have three or four senior ministers and deputy ministers to retire and adjust (including Luo Shugang), In this crucial and one and a half year, China's tourism industry is a period of self-survival and development, self-" broken arm survival ", self-" helpless remarriage "and self-" euthanasia" in despair.In this period, the stronger have many reasons and opportunities for "shearing ", that is, the stronger are more stronger, and they will have more advantages in this period, such as political resources, capital channels, brand effects, soft power penetration and human resources reserve. In particular, enterprises and institutions with cultural genes, advanced science and economic thinking, they will "win the future" more, such as: Fosun Travel Group, Song Cheng Performing Arts shares, Yunnan City Investment Group, Pan Culture & Tourism Group and so on.

The "big drama" of China's tourism industry comprehensive and complete subversion and reshuffle have begun in 2020-2021.


 
 


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