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【文旅院】拯救——中国旅游业经济今明年或将全面“死掉”?

时间:2020-07-15来源:世界酒店联盟 作者:采编中心
  

 中国新冠病毒疫情已经得到基本控制(但依然有局部复发可能),全球新冠病毒疫情仍然严峻,美国的新冠病毒疫情第一波高潮似乎开始“滚滚而来”,巴西和印度等国家的新冠疫情增长数字也居高不下。毫无疑问,全球已经面临和出现了“多极格局重整”,世界的政治、经济、军事、科技等力量再分配已经出现

作为服务业重要方面的旅游业已经受到重创,我们从美国、英国 、法国、德国、加拿大等几个大国的旅游行业协会及研究机构有关报告了解到,国际旅游业务已经停摆半年左右,特别是中国的出入境旅游业务已经出现灾难性毁灭。许多国际旅行社及其衍生配套服务的企业和机构已经关门歇业。
据联合国世界旅游组织分析,2020年全球旅游业遭受新冠病毒疫情重创,全年国际游客人次较去年或下降60%至80%。总部位于西班牙马德里的世界旅游组织认为今年以来,多国为抗击疫情而实施各种旅行限制,包括关闭机场和边界,全球旅游业正遭受至少是1950年以来最严重的危机。

按照2019年统计数字表明,中国是世界第一大出境旅游国,第四大入境旅游国,全球综合旅游发展指数排名第二,仅次于法国。然而,从2020年开始,这些个来自官方的“数字”将会彻底发生变化。自从文化部和国家旅游局合并以来,中国旅游产业经济发展“大趋势和基准线条”比较模糊,行业发展及管控力度越来越弱,文化与旅游的融合似乎有不少是“强行嫁接”,许多地方行业管理部门整合尚未完成,“文旅小镇”项目落地成灾,行业投资开发企业越来越“六神无主”……

前不久,看到有一篇《全球旅游业已死》的文章,表述非常严重。近期又看到有关报道说,中国有40000多家酒店倒闭,数千个酒店品牌倒下。尽管说得“满目泪流”,但现实就是这样残酷。

突如其来的新冠病毒疫情天灾,中国旅游业经济几乎是遭遇“灭顶”,国际游没了,国内游也几乎没了(跨区域旅游系统依然没有恢复的“时间表”),只剩下“自由行”和家门口的“自娱自乐”了,这样的局面还能构成旅游业“产业经济格局”吗?旅游业经济发展是众多的人与人和人与自然的互动交流的结果,目前线上的旅游集团业务就死得更惨了。

最近,本人在海南、广东、江苏、上海、北京等几个旅游经济发达地区一线调研,著名景区游客寥寥,所住酒店都只有20—40%开房率(有的酒店本就没有对外正式营业,只做内部接待),有些酒店尽管有30%开房率,但房价只有以往的一半(那么这个开房率只等于先前的10%—15%)。关键是,所到几地,许多大酒店和中端酒店连锁已经倒闭关门(此处省略许多品牌名称)。
前不久,华北最大的也是生意最好的国家5A景区、世界地质公园“野三坡景区”宣告破产倒闭,这是非常重要的“符号”和“警示”,如此“牛叉”的景区都已倒闭,其他的所谓知名的“各种旗号”的所谓资本和资产运作的景区,或旅游小镇就会更加命途多舛和无法生存!
我们建议文化和旅游管理部门赶紧****《“新冠病毒疫情转好时期”国家旅游业经济恢复发展总体计划》,从国家层面支持和指导各省、市、自治区之间的健康跨区域旅游组团发团经营工作,特别是高端定制线路游和个性化休闲度假旅游(如:海南的旅游业启动和恢复比较有代表性),否则,2020中国旅游业经济财年是极其糟糕的,中国旅游业也有可能在“未来不远”彻底“死掉”!这对于具有牵引和拉动内需的“支柱产业”来说是对国家“经济内循环”发展极其不利的。
如今,美好的东南亚旅游业务已经休克多时,非常活跃的港澳台旅游经济已经彻底死亡(估计今年内无法重启恢复),所以,“改开”40多年来每年以两位数字增长的中国旅游业经济已经在“开倒车”,旅游业经济曾给国家GDP贡献10%,或者综合解决9%的就业率,或者拉动多个行业的关联发展将成“美好的回忆”。
我们非常地担心,全球疫情不断爆发之下的中国旅游业经济是非常“岌岌可危”的,也有可能在今年十月后或明年上半年“五•一”前走向“全面崩溃”……
所以,我们国家文旅部的部长们及分管的更高层领导要非常重视中国旅游业发展的“悲惨现状”。
最新消息,欧盟的300多万家旅游企业也面临严峻现实,欧盟旅游业占全球旅游业30%,约有2700万人直接或间接从事旅游业工作。目前法国、意大利、比利时、德国、瑞士等国在启动跨境旅游,大力推动旅游业复苏。这几个国家特别重视房车周边游和小众特色旅游产品,并将房车销售,房车营地建设,航空飞行套餐,以及保健医疗等进行整合,打包成比较可行和健康安全的旅游产品和旅游套餐,值得中国旅游业借鉴。

China's coronavirus epidemic has been basically under control (but there is a possibility of local recurrence), the global coronavirus epidemic is still grim, the first wave of the U.S. epidemic has not yet arrived, Brazil and India and other countries have high epidemic growth figures. There is no doubt that the world has faced and appeared "pattern reorganization ", political, economic, military, science and technology and other forces have been redistributed.

As an important aspect of the service industry, tourism has been hit hard. We have learned from the Tourism Industry Associations and Research Institutions of the United States, Britain, France, Germany, Canada and other major countries that the international tourism business has been suspended for half a year, especially China's inbound and outbound tourism business has been catastrophic. Many international travel agencies and their derivatives businesses and institutions have closed down.

According to the UN World Tourism Organization, the global tourism industry was hit hard by the new coronavirus epidemic in 2020, and the annual number of international tourists fell 60% to 80% from last year or so. The World Tourism Organization, based in Madrid, Spain, believes that the global tourism industry is suffering from the worst crisis since at least 1950, with many countries imposing travel restrictions to combat the epidemic, including airport closures and borders.

According to 2019 statistics, China is the world's largest outbound tourist country, the fourth largest inbound tourist country, and the global comprehensive tourism development index ranks second, second only to France. However, from 2020, these official "game numbers" will be completely changed. Since the merger of the Ministry of Culture and the National Tourism Administration, China's tourism economic development seems to be increasingly blurred, industry control is becoming weaker, the integration of culture and tourism seems to have a lot of "forced grafting" be suspected, many local industry management departments and investment and development enterprises are confusing

Not long ago, I saw an article "the global tourism industry is dead ", recently saw the report that more than 40000 hotels in China closed down, thousands of hotel brands fell. Although it is a bit serious, it is truth.

Coronavirus Epidemic Scourge, China's tourism economy has almost suffered a "devastating disaster ", international tourism has disappeared, and domestic tourism has almost disappeared (the cross-regional tourism system has not recovered), leaving only" free travel "and" self-entertainment "at home, can such this situation still constitute the tourism" industrial economic pattern "?

Recently, I have been in Hainan, Guangdong, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Beijing and other areas of tourism economy first-line research, there are very few tourist in famous scenic area , stay in hotels are only 20-40% of open rate, although there are 30% of open rate for some hotels, but only half of the price (then this open rate is equal to the previous 10~15%). Crucially, many hotel and mid-end hotel chains have closed down in several places (Many brand names are omitted here).

Not long ago, North China's largest and best-business country 5A scenic spots, the World Natural Heritage Conservation "Yeshanpou Scenic Area" declared bankruptcy. This is a very important "symbol" and "warning ", so" Impressed"scenic spots have closed down, other so-called" various flags "of the capital and assets of the operation of scenic spots, or tourist towns will be more ill-fated and not survive.


 

We recommend that the cultural and tourism administration departments promptly issue the <<National Overall Plan for the Economic Recovery and
Development of Tourism in the "Post-Infection Era of the Coronavirus>>, and support at the national level the development of healthy cross-regional tourism groups between provinces and municipalities, in particular high-end custom-made line tours and personalized leisure vacation tours (e.g. Hainan's tourism start-up and recovery is more representative). Otherwise, the tourism economy will be extremely bad in 2020.  Today, the beautiful Southeast Asian tourism business has been in shock for a long time, the very active Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan tourism economy is estimated to be unable to restart this year, China's tourism economy, which has grown in two digits each year for more than 40 years, has been "driving down ". A tourism economy that has contributed 10% to the country's GDP, or combined with a 9% employment rate, or linked growth in multiple industries, will be a "good memory"

We are very worried that China's tourism economy under the global outbreak is very "precarious ", and it is also possible to move to the edge of" total collapse "after October this year or before" May 1st." in first half of the next year.

Therefore, the ministers and senior leaders in charge of the Ministry of Culture and Tourism should attach great importance to the "tragic status quo" of China's tourism development.

The latest news, the EU's more than 3 million tourism enterprises also face a grim reality, EU tourism accounts for 30% of the global tourism industry, about 27 million people directly or indirectly engaged in tourism work. At present, France, Italy, Belgium, Germany, Switzerland and other countries are starting cross-border tourism, vigorously promote tourism recovery. These countries pay special attention to the tourism products around the RV and the niche tourism products, and integrate the RV sales, RV camp construction, aviation flight package, as well as health care and medical treatment, and package into more feasible and healthy and safe tourism products and tourism packages, which are worthy of Chinese tourism reference.

 

 

 

 

 

 
 
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